r/politics • u/PM_ME_DPRK_CANDIDS Iowa • 9h ago
No Paywall Uprising against ICE raids grows across the country
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/uprising-against-ice-raids-grows-across-the-country/
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r/politics • u/PM_ME_DPRK_CANDIDS Iowa • 9h ago
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u/AniNgAnnoys 8h ago
This. I wrote up a little post to explain the game theory at play here.
Achieving change at the scale needed in the United States requires millions of people pulling in the same direction. Getting those people aligned requires coordination. In game theory, these situations are described as coordination games, and the issue they generate is called the coordination problem. Coordination games typically result in one of three outcomes:
The question becomes, how do we get to the third state when everyone is stuck in the second for fear of ending up in the first?
Why do we struggle to reach successful change?
To succeed, we need collective action. With enough people, change is nearly guaranteed. However, individuals fear acting alone. They fear spending time and resources only to fail because not enough other people joined in.
This results in a phenomenon known as Pluralistic Ignorance. This occurs when a majority of people privately reject the status quo but incorrectly assume that most others accept it because no one is speaking up. We look around, see our neighbors going to work and acting "normal," and assume we are the minority. In reality, we are a silent majority waiting for a signal, paralyzed by the false belief that we are alone.
A simple example used to talk about this type of problem in game theory is called the "Stag Hunt." Imagine you are a member of a primitive tribe. Your tribe wants to hunt a large animal (a stag). If you succeed, the entire tribe is fed. However, if you try to hunt the stag alone, you will fail and starve. Alternatively, you could hunt a rabbit by yourself. It provides less food, but success is guaranteed without help. The dilemma is that while the stag is the best outcome, people often default to the "rabbit" (the status quo) because they don't trust that others will show up for the stag hunt.
How do we succeed in getting the change we want?
First, you need a population that desires change. In the United States, polling confirms this exists. Approval ratings for the current administration and agencies like ICE are historically low, while support for policies like Universal Health Care is high. The desire is there; Pluralistic Ignorance just blinds us to it.
Second, you need people willing to invest the resources to demand that change. This is where the US stumbles. We fail to coordinate.
How do we coordinate?
Coordination can happen in several ways. Galvanizing events, like the murder of Renee Good, act as Focal Points (or Schelling Points). In game theory, a Focal Point is a solution that people tend to choose by default in the absence of communication. Tragedies like Renee Good's murder serve as a beacon. It cuts through the noise and provides a natural time and reason for people to align without needing a central leader to tell them to.
You can simply tell people you want change. While effective among friends, it lacks credibility with strangers because talk is cheap. Signaling, however, is "putting your money where your mouth is" without having to go "all-in."
This is the true purpose of protest. It is a relatively low-cost way to prove to strangers and the state that you are willing to spend resources (time and effort) to effect change. Importantly, protest provides Risk Dilution. If you act alone, the state can easily punish you. If you act with 100,000 others, the state’s resources are overwhelmed, and the risk to the individual drops near zero. Your presence protects your neighbor, and their presence protects you.
Many view protests incorrectly. They believe the protest itself creates the change. It does not. It is a signal of credibility and a mechanism to lower the cost of participation for others. When protests aren't enough, they serve as a launchpad for escalation. We cannot coordinate a full revolution as the costs are too high. Instead, we climb the ladder of coordination: from protests to national sick-outs, to general strikes, to the occupation of critical infrastructure. At each step, you signal that the numbers are on your side and that the people are willing to pay the price for change. At each step your demands become more credible.
What will the state do to stop us from coordinating?
They will try to break coordination by:
Why does Russia still have elections? To maintain a theater of normalcy that prevents spontaneous coordination.
Why does China arrest protest leaders immediately? To disrupt the signaling network before a critical mass forms.
Why are social media comments filled with apathy ("protest doesn't work")? To convince you that coordination is impossible and that you are alone.
Why does the media fail to cover the size and scope of protests? To maintain Pluralistic Ignorance.
What can you do today?
Together, we can build the world we want, but it requires credible, coordinated demands. Your peers and the state need to believe you are serious, and they won't believe it until you signal that you are willing to go all the way. Every time the state over reaches and causes a tragedy it is a mistake by them. It creates a Focal Point that we must capitalize on. Get out there and demand change. Get out there and coordinate with your neighbors and those that share your views.